THE SHORT ANSWERSPX options CVD separated sharply below SPY and QQQ near the ES low. The Split view showed that put buying drove the extreme, a rarer version of the pattern in this archive. ES then rose while futures cumulative delta continued making new lows.
MAXIMUM MOVE SHOWNAbout 29–30 ES points from the low to the subsequent high (roughly 0.37%–0.38%).
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The yellow SPX line dropped sharply below SPY and QQQ before midday. The divergence reached its extreme near the marked ES low.
The Split view showed something unusual: the red put line jumped sharply near the low. Put buying, rather than the call selling seen in many of our other examples, drove this extreme.
What happened next?
ES and futures cumulative delta · August 13, 2026. Price recovers while delta continues making lower lows. Open chart at full size ↗
ES turned higher, but futures cumulative delta continued falling and made lower lows after price had already begun to recover.
ES ultimately rallied roughly 29–30 points from the low to the later high.
This was a rare variation of the setup. Many of the downside SPX extremes in this archive came from call selling. On August 13, a sharp burst of put buying created the important move.
This is the behavior we mean by selling without progress: delta keeps falling, but price refuses to follow.
What should we watch next time?
Start with a clear SPX divergence near a price low. Then watch whether ES holds above that low while futures delta continues lower.
The more aggressively delta falls without a matching price decline, the more closely we should watch for a reversal in price.
About the perspective
Under the Price brings a trading perspective dating to 1997 to futures cumulative delta, options flow and the process of studying unusual market behavior. We explain the observation, its possible interpretation and the evidence still needed.
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